Have you noticed all of the predictions out there that are SO GENERAL it will be almost impossible to track? Most of the so-called “predictions for 2012″ I’ve read, should actually be titled ‘here’s some stuff you should do in 2012′. A lot of bloggers are pointing out trends or areas of focus for 2012 but very few are putting their neck out on the line by forecasting something actually happening… or NOT happening.
Even though I have a track-record to protect… I will put my neck on the line.
Here are my top predictions for 2012 from the most important stories and topics I’ve been following. In no particular order they are:
1) RIM co-CEO canned
Jim Balsillie becomes a scapegoat of sorts for RIM’s declining market share. CEO Mike Lazaridis continues to hang on (though his shares in RIM have been
Sorry Jim!
substantially devalued). Hopefully they clean house in the marketing department or hire a new agency. It is a shame RIM has the best products right now than they’ve had… Ever. But, no one knows about them.
Others have predicted RIM launches an Android-powered BlackBerry and gets bought by Amazon. Neither of which will happen.
2) Major smartphone virus/security threat
Anytime a single technology platform plateaus market share it becomes the target of attacks and security threats. For this reason I think we will see the first major smartphone security threat or major virus in 2012. It will affect Android users.
3) Apple Maps and iPhone 5
Apple unveils their own maps platform to replace Google Maps as the default. I see this move important to the future if Apple’s mobile ad platform. The release of Apple Maps (iMaps? Lol) may coincide with the iPhone 5 which i think will happen late in 2012 – probably in the fall. iPhone 5 gets and even larger screen. (Duh!)
4) Social Growth Exhaustion
Sick of hearing how much social media usage is growing? It stops in 2012. This is the year that social growth levels off. Sound bad? It’s actually good. It means most of the people who are going to engage in social media are already registered.
5) Mobile search goes 50/50
I believe in 2012 search will be split 50/50 between mobile and traditional (PCs). Making mobile extremely important for marketers. Most talking-heads will tell you that mobile strategy is key to your success in 2012, and they’ll use terms like “mobile optimization” and “mobile ready”. But you shouldn’t listen to them, because…
6) Mobile convergence
I feel mobile technology is advancing so quickly that sites and web-based applications will no longer need to take extra steps to be “mobile compatible”. As a result, the distinction between ”the web” and “the mobile web” will become unimportant. This year most smartphones and tablets will become just as capable as your PC when it comes to web browsing and web apps.
7) Despite Rumors, Facebook STILL does NOT go public
Sorry folks, no IPO for Facebook this year either. It will reamin private with Zuck holding the marjory of the company close to the vest for now. You can read why I think so in my re-cap of last year’s predictions - the reason hasn’t changed. (Though I will note, if I’m correct in #4, going public in ‘12 could be good timing. YA HEAR THAT ZUCK?) And speaking of Facebook…
8 ) Ads will Appear in your Facebook News Feed
Your news feed will contain targeted, sponsored messages. This will happen soon. Really soon. Before the end of 1st quarter.
9) E-Mail marketing STILL strong
I’ve been listening to people predict the end of email marketing since 2006. And while it did experience a slump a few years ago – it was most likely more due those silly predictions than anything else! The truth is, email is the top text-based communication tool and will remain that way for quite some time. As a great writer once said: “Rumors of the death of the email have been greatly exaggerated.”
10) IE5, IE6, Flash and Sliverlight… GONE
Sure another combo prediction. But it feels safe because of the rapidly growing base of HTML 5 development. It’s cross-platform capabilities will enable marketers to deliver more consistant experience to users than ever before. HTML 5′s multimedia capabilities will make plug-ins like Flash and Sliverlight a thing of the past. All of the benefits of HTML 5 will outweigh the small incentive for creating sites and web-based applications which are compatible with legacy web browsers like IE 6 and IE 7 (currently only 5.8% of users). Sure in terms of Internet users 5.8% is still millions of users. But if they want to be one of the cool kids – they’re going to just have to upgrade.
